 | Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach Author/Editor: Klaus-Peter Hellwig. Release Date:May, 2021 In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications more...
| Price: $18.00
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| Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties Author/Editor: Klaus-Peter Hellwig. Release Date:March, 2021 I use three decades of county-level data to estimate the effects of federal unemployment benefit extensions on economic activity. To overcome the reverse causality coming from the fact that benefit more...
| Price: $18.00
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| Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Hans Weisfeld, Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, Fabio Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Andrea F Presbitero. Release Date:December, 2020 In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt more...
| Price: $5.00
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| Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities Author/Editor: Klaus-Peter Hellwig. Release Date:December, 2020 Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing more...
| Price: $18.00
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| A Framework for Estimating Health Spending in Response to COVID-19 Author/Editor: Paolo Dudine, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Samir Jahan. Release Date:July, 2020 We estimate the additional health spending necessary to treat COVID-19 patients. We expand a Susceptible Infected Recovered model to project the number of people requiring hospitalization, use more...
| Price: $18.00
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| Public Wealth in the United States Author/Editor: Fabien Gonguet, Klaus-Peter Hellwig. Release Date:July, 2019 We analyze the US public sector balance sheet and project it forward under the assumption that current policies remain in place. We first document the history of the balance sheet and its components more...
| Price: $18.00
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| Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections Author/Editor: Klaus-Peter Hellwig. Release Date:December, 2018 I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors more...
| Price: $18.00
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