Release Date:September, 2022

The paper describes the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) that underlies the Bank of Ghana Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The New Keynesian semi-structural model incorporates the main more...

Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Hayk Avetisyan, Douglas Laxton, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Lusine Torosyan, Hou Wang.

Release Date:February, 2019

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that more...

Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Rania A Al-Mashat, Hayk Avetisyan, Jaromir Benes, Olivier Bizimana, Aram Butavyan, Robert Ford, Narek Ghazaryan, Vahagn Grigoryan, Mane Harutyunyan, Anahit Hovhannisyan, Edgar Hovhannisyan, Hayk Karapetyan, Mariam Kharaishvili, Douglas Laxton, Akaki Liqokeli, Karolina Matikyan, Gevorg Minasyan, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Andrei Orlov, Babken Pashinyan, Garik Petrosyan, Yekaterina Rezepina, Aleksandr Shirkhanyan, Tamta Sopromadze, Lusine Torosyan, Erik Vardanyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao.

Release Date:July, 2018

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to more...