 | A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and their Economic Effects Author/Editor: Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Swarnali A Hannan, Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew K Rose. Release Date:January, 2022 We develop a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is an empirical measure of how more...
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| Social Spending in Mexico: Needs, Priorities and Reforms Author/Editor: Swarnali A Hannan, Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, David Bartolini. Release Date:October, 2021 Poverty in Mexico was high before the COVID-19 pandemic and has been exacerbated by the pandemic, with significant variation across states. Education losses from the pandemic are likely to be large more...
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| Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features Author/Editor: Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, Swarnali A Hannan. Release Date:July, 2021 To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over more...
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| External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position? Author/Editor: Luis M Cubeddu, Swarnali A Hannan, Pau Rabanal. Release Date:January, 2021 Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries’ external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of more...
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| A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout Author/Editor: Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, Swarnali A Hannan. Release Date:October, 2020 Mexico has had one of the highest death tolls from Covid-19 and among the largest declines in output compared to peers. This paper utilizes data on Mexico’s thirty-two states to better understand more...
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| Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond Author/Editor: Swarnali A Hannan, Keiko Honjo, Mehdi Raissi. Release Date:October, 2020 Mexico’s fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities’ desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, risks a more severe more...
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| Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China? Author/Editor: Eugenio M Cerutti, Shan Chen, Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Swarnali A Hannan, Adil Mohommad. Release Date:November, 2019 The trade discussions between the U.S. and China are on-going. Not much is known about the shape and nature of a potential agreement, but it seems possible that it would include elements of managed more...
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| The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China's Shrinking Current Account Surplus Author/Editor: Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Swarnali A Hannan. Release Date:November, 2019 China’s current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical more...
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| The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update Author/Editor: Luis M Cubeddu, Signe Krogstrup, Gustavo Adler, Pau Rabanal, Mai Chi Dao, Swarnali A Hannan, Luciana Juvenal, Carolina Osorio Buitron, Cyril Rebillard, Daniel Garcia-Macia, Callum Jones, Jair Rodriguez, Kyun Suk Chang, Deepali Gautam, Zijiao Wang, Nan Li. Release Date:March, 2019 The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of more...
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| Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs Author/Editor: Davide Furceri, Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew K Rose. Release Date:January, 2019 We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that more...
| Price: $18.00
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