 | Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions Author/Editor: Bertrand Gruss, Malhar S Nabar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro. Release Date:March, 2018 This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions,
and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing
Economies and more...
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| The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery Author/Editor: Aqib Aslam, Emine Boz, Eugenio M Cerutti, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Petia Topalova. Release Date:November, 2017 Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes more...
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| Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis Author/Editor: Florian Misch, Brian Olden, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Lamya Kejji. Release Date:November, 2017 Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. more...
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| Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies Author/Editor: Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro. Release Date:September, 2017 We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 more...
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 | Gone with the Headwinds : Global Productivity Author/Editor: Gustavo Adler, Romain A Duval, Davide Furceri, Sinem Kılıç Çelik, Ksenia Koloskova, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro. Release Date:April, 2017 Productivity growth—the key driver of living standards—fell sharply following the global financial crisis and has remained sluggish since, adding to a slowdown already in train before. Building more...
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| Exchange Rates and Trade : A Disconnect? Author/Editor: Daniel Leigh, Weicheng Lian, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Rachel Szymanski, Viktor Tsyrennikov, Hong Yang. Release Date:March, 2017 We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both more...
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| How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads? Author/Editor: Jacopo Cimadomo, Peter Claeys, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro. Release Date:May, 2016 This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 more...
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| Fiscal Policy in Latin America : Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Francesco Grigoli, Keiko Honjo, Javier Kapsoli, Alexander Klemm, Bogdan Lissovolik, Jan Luksic, Marialuz Moreno Badia, Joana Pereira, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Baoping Shang, Yulia Ustyugova. Release Date:April, 2015 Latin America’s bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the more...
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| Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions Author/Editor: Salvatore Dell'Erba, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Ksenia Koloskova. Release Date:December, 2014 The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently lowgrowth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers duringprotracted recessions (PR) in a more...
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 | Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy Author/Editor: Anja Baum, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Anke Weber. Release Date:December, 2012 Only a few empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between fiscal multipliers and the underlying state of the economy. This paper investigates this link on a country-by-country basis for the more...
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