Author/Editor: Gabriel Di Bella, Mark J Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer, Frederik G Toscani.

Release Date:July, 2022

This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe's balances and economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to more...

Author/Editor: Marco Arena, Ruo Chen, Alfredo Cuevas, Karim Foda, Borja Gracia, Estelle X Liu, Alex Pienkowski, Christiane Roehler, Shituo Sun, Sebastian Weber, Xin Cindy Xu, Yu Shi.

Release Date:July, 2021

In Europe, the severe human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic was compounded by the deepest fall in economic activity in modern history. Yet this huge decline in output did surprisingly little damage to more...

Author/Editor: Marco Arena, Gabriel Di Bella, Alfredo Cuevas, Borja Gracia, Vina Nguyen, Alex Pienkowski.

Release Date:July, 2020

Estimates of the natural interest rate are often useful in the analysis of monetary and other macroeconomic policies. The topic gathered much attention following the great financial crisis and the more...

Author/Editor: Alex Pienkowski.

Release Date:December, 2019

This paper outlines a simple three-country macroeconomic model designed to focus on the transmission of external shocks to Portugal. Building on the framework developed by Berg et al (2006), this more...

Author/Editor: Alex Pienkowski.

Release Date:May, 2017

This paper provides a tractable framework to assess how the structure of debt instruments—specifically by currency denomination and indexation to GDP—can raise the debt limit of a sovereign. By more...

Author/Editor: Pablo Anaya, Alex Pienkowski.

Release Date:June, 2015

This paper presents a novel approach to detail the propagation of shocks to public debt. Themodeling technique involves a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) estimator with anendogenous debt more...