 | Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism Author/Editor: Shekhar Aiyar, Jiaqian Chen, Christian H Ebeke, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, Anna Ilyina, Alvar Kangur, Tansaya Kunaratskul, Sergio L Rodriguez, Michele Ruta, Tatjana Schulze, Gabriel Soderberg, Juan P Trevino. Release Date:January, 2023 After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies more...
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 | Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic Author/Editor: Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Fan Zhang, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru. Release Date:December, 2016 This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. more...
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| A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output Author/Editor: Patrick Blagrave, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Fan Zhang. Release Date:April, 2015 Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed more...
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| A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area Author/Editor: Michal Andrle, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Giang Ho. Release Date:October, 2014 This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and more...
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| Adding China to the Global Projection Model Author/Editor: Patrick Blagrave, Peter Elliott, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Hostland, Douglas Laxton, Fan Zhang. Release Date:December, 2013 We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with more...
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| The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure Author/Editor: Michal Andrle, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Giang Ho. Release Date:October, 2013 This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal more...
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| GPM6 : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions Author/Editor: Ioan Carabenciov, Charles Freedman, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Ondra Kamenik, Petar Manchev. Release Date:April, 2013 This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to more...
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| Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model Author/Editor: Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Douglas Laxton, Michal Andrle, Haris Munandar, Charles Freedman, Danny Hermawan. Release Date:November, 2009 This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the more...
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