 | Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Ippei Shibata, Kadir Tanyeri. Release Date:March, 2019 Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states more...
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|  | Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Hayk Avetisyan, Douglas Laxton, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Lusine Torosyan, Hou Wang. Release Date:February, 2019 This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that more...
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|  | Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Rania A Al-Mashat, Hayk Avetisyan, Jaromir Benes, Olivier Bizimana, Aram Butavyan, Robert Ford, Narek Ghazaryan, Vahagn Grigoryan, Mane Harutyunyan, Anahit Hovhannisyan, Edgar Hovhannisyan, Hayk Karapetyan, Mariam Kharaishvili, Douglas Laxton, Akaki Liqokeli, Karolina Matikyan, Gevorg Minasyan, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Armen Nurbekyan, Andrei Orlov, Babken Pashinyan, Garik Petrosyan, Yekaterina Rezepina, Aleksandr Shirkhanyan, Tamta Sopromadze, Lusine Torosyan, Erik Vardanyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao. Release Date:July, 2018 Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to more...
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|  | Hollowing Out: The Channels of Income Polarization in the United States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Rodrigo Mariscal, Daniela Muhaj. Release Date:November, 2017 Data show that middle-income households have continued moving down, and less so up, the income distribution in the United States since the 1970s—a phenomenon that is often referred to as the more...
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|  | Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Olivier Bizimana, Douglas Laxton, Kadir Tanyeri, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao, Fan Zhang. Release Date:May, 2017 Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter more...
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|  | Income Polarization in the United States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Kory Kantenga, Juan Sole. Release Date:June, 2016 The paper uses a combination of micro-level datasets to document the rise of income polarization—what some have referred to as the “hollowing out” of the income distribution—in the United more...
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|  | Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Olivier Bizimana, Silvia Domit, Emilio Fernández Corugedo, Douglas Laxton, Kadir Tanyeri, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang. Release Date:December, 2015 The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The
 programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from more...
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|  | A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi. Release Date:June, 2015 The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of more...
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|  | Avoiding Dark Corners : A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondra Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen, Hou Wang. Release Date:June, 2015 The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy through forward more...
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|  | Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Jaromir Benes, Joshua Felman, Irene Feng, Charles Freedman, Douglas Laxton, Evan Tanner, David Vavra, Hou Wang. Release Date:April, 2015 The paper first describes how the Czech National Bank (CNB) moved gradually from a fixed exchange rate regime to the frontiers of Inflation-Forecast Targeting. It then focuses on the CNB’s recent more...
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