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Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain

Author/Editor: Elías Albagli, Francesco Grigoli, Emiliano Luttini.

Release Date:August, 2022

We show that firms rely on price changes observed along their supply chain to form expectations about aggregate inflation, and that these expectations have a complete pass-through to sales prices. more...



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Debt-for-Climate Swaps: Analysis, Design, and Implementation

Author/Editor: Marcos d Chamon, Erik Klok, Vimal V Thakoor, Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

Release Date:August, 2022

This paper compares debt-for-climate swaps—partial debt relief operations conditional on debtor commitments to undertake climate-related investments—to alternative fiscal support instruments. Because more...



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Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

Author/Editor: Anil Ari, Nicolas Arregui, Simon Black, Oya Celasun, Dora M Iakova, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian W H Parry, Iulia Teodoru, Karlygash Zhunussova.

Release Date:July, 2022

We estimate that the recent surge in international fossil fuel prices will raise European households' cost of living in 2022 by close to 7 percent of consumption on average. Household burdens vary more...



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Understanding and Predicting Systemic Corporate Distress: A Machine-Learning Approach

Author/Editor: Burcu Hacibedel, Ritong Qu.

Release Date:July, 2022

In this paper, we study systemic non-financial corporate sector distress using firm-level probabilities of default (PD), covering 55 economies, and spanning the last three decades. Systemic corporate more...



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Reducing Dollarization in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Author/Editor: Selim Cakir, Maria Atamanchuk, Mazin Al Riyami, Nia Sharashidze, Nathalie Reyes.

Release Date:July, 2022

Declining but still high dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region affect macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Although more...



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Legal Gender Equality as a Catalyst for Convergence

Author/Editor: Can Sever.

Release Date:July, 2022

The unequal treatment of women in the law is one of the most visible forms of gender inequality. Prevalent legal constraints on the basis of gender prevent women, and thereby economies, from reaching more...



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Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations

Author/Editor: Berkay Akyapi, Matthieu Bellon, Emanuele Massetti.

Release Date:July, 2022

A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of more...



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Do IMF Programs Stimulate Private Sector Investment?

Author/Editor: Pietro Bomprezzi, Silvia Marchesi, Rima Turk-Ariss.

Release Date:July, 2022

This paper provides new evidence on the role of IMF programs in stimulating private sector investments. Using detailed firm-level data on tangible fixed assets and a local projection methodology, we more...



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Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention

Author/Editor: Andrew Filardo, R G Gelos, Thomas McGregor.

Release Date:July, 2022

This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of more...



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Economic Growth After Debt Surges

Author/Editor: João Tovar Jalles, Paulo A Medas.

Release Date:July, 2022

Debt levels, both private and public, were already at record highs before the Covid-19 pandemic, and surged further in 2020. The high indebteness raises concerns whether it will undermine future more...



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