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Czech Magic : Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB

Author/Editor: Kevin Clinton, Tibor Hlédik, Tomás Holub, Douglas Laxton, Hou Wang.

Release Date:January, 2017

This paper describes the CNB’s experience implementing an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) regime, and the building of a system for providing the economic information that policymakers need to more...



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Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Author/Editor: Rabah Arezki, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Akito Matsumoto, Armen Nurbekyan, Hou Wang, Jiaxiong Yao.

Release Date:January, 2017

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of more...



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Macroeconomic Management When Policy Space is Constrained : A Comprehensive, Consistent and Coordinated Approach to Economic Policy

Author/Editor: Vitor Gaspar, Maurice Obstfeld, Ratna Sahay, Douglas Laxton, Dennis P Botman, Kevin Clinton, Romain A Duval, Kotaro Ishi, Zoltan Jakab, Laura Jaramillo, Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, Joannes Mongardini, Susanna Mursula, Erlend Nier, Yulia Ustyugova, Hou Wang, Oliver Wuensch.

Release Date:September, 2016

The recovery in GDP growth since the global financial crisis has been halting and weak. Concern is widespread that countercyclical policies have run out of space or lack the power to raise growth or more...



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How to Improve Inflation Targeting in Canada

Author/Editor: Maurice Obstfeld, Kevin Clinton, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Yulia Ustyugova, Hou Wang.

Release Date:September, 2016

Routine publication of the forecast path for the policy interest rate (i.e. “conventional forward guidance”) would improve the transparency of monetary policy. It would also improve policy more...



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Reflating Japan : Time to Get Unconventional?

Author/Editor: Elif Arbatli, Dennis P J Botman, Kevin Clinton, Pietro Cova, Vitor Gaspar, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, Joannes Mongardini, Hou Wang.

Release Date:August, 2016

Japan has ambitious economic goals: 3 percent nominal growth; 2 percent inflation; and a primary budget surplus. Abenomics has employed the three arrows of monetary, fiscal and structural policies, more...



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Mitigating the Deadly Embrace in Financial Cycles : Countercyclical Buffers and Loan-to-Value Limits

Author/Editor: Jaromir Benes, Douglas Laxton, Joannes Mongardini.

Release Date:April, 2016

This paper presents a new version of MAPMOD (Mark II) to study the effectiveness of macroprudential regulations. We extend the original model by explicitly modeling the housing market. We show how more...



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Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States

Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Olivier Bizimana, Silvia Domit, Emilio Fernández Corugedo, Douglas Laxton, Kadir Tanyeri, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang.

Release Date:December, 2015

The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The
 programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from more...



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Banks in The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Author/Editor: Michal Andrle, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir.

Release Date:July, 2015

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region DSGE modeldeveloped by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy and scenario analysis.This paper compares two more...



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Inflation-Forecast Targeting : Applying the Principle of Transparency

Author/Editor: Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Michel Juillard, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Hou Wang.

Release Date:June, 2015

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation more...



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Avoiding Dark Corners : A Robust Monetary Policy Framework for the United States

Author/Editor: Ali Alichi, Kevin Clinton, Charles Freedman, Ondra Kamenik, Michel Juillard, Douglas Laxton, Jarkko Turunen, Hou Wang.

Release Date:June, 2015

The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy through forward more...



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