 | The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data Author/Editor: Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan David Ostry. Release Date:April, 2018 We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that more...
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| The Distributional Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Economies Author/Editor: Davide Furceri, Jun Ge, Prakash Loungani, Giovanni Melina. Release Date:March, 2018 We construct unanticipated government spending shocks for 103 developing countries from 1990 to 2015 and study their effects on income distribution. We find that unanticipated fiscal consolidations more...
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| The Long-Run Decoupling of Emissions and Output: Evidence from the Largest Emitters Author/Editor: Gail Cohen, João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani, Ricardo Marto. Release Date:March, 2018 For the world's 20 largest emitters, we use a simple trend/cycle decomposition to provide evidence of decoupling between greenhouse gas emissions and output in richer nations, particularly in more...
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| How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? Author/Editor: Zidong An, João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani. Release Date:March, 2018 We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware more...
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| Inflation Anchoring and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data Author/Editor: Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani. Release Date:March, 2018 Central bankers often assert that low inflation and anchoring of inflation expectations are good for economic growth (Bernanke 2007, Plosser 2007). We test this claim using panel data on sectoral more...
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| Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies Author/Editor: Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro. Release Date:September, 2017 We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 more...
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| Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World Author/Editor: Gail Cohen, João Tovar Jalles, Prakash Loungani, Ricardo Marto. Release Date:August, 2017 Recent discussions of the extent of decoupling between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
real gross domestic product (GDP) provide mixed evidence and have generated much debate.
We show more...
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| World Trade in Services : Evidence from A New Dataset Author/Editor: Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, Ke Wang. Release Date:March, 2017 Using a newly constructed dataset on trade in services for 192 countries from 1970 to 2014,
this paper shows that services currently constitute one-fourth of world trade and an
more...
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| The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality Author/Editor: Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Aleksandra Zdzienicka. Release Date:December, 2016 This paper provides new evidence of the effect of monetary policy shocks on income inequality. Using a measure of unanticipated changes in policy rates for a panel of 32 advanced and emerging market more...
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| Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth : The Role of Credit Constraints Author/Editor: Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri, Yi Huang, Prakash Loungani. Release Date:August, 2016 We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. This effect is larger more...
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