 | Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime Author/Editor: Andrew Berg, Rafael A Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna. Release Date:January, 2014 We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies inthe macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption more...
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| Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya Author/Editor: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Rafael A Portillo, Jan Vlcek, R Armando Morales. Release Date:November, 2013 We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an more...
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| The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach Author/Editor: Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A Portillo, Jan Vlcek. Release Date:September, 2013 Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels more...
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 | Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya Author/Editor: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, R Armando Morales, Rafael Portillo, Jan Vlcek. Release Date:March, 2013 We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to more...
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| Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework Author/Editor: Jaromir Benes, Andrew Berg, Rafael A Portillo, David Vavra. Release Date:January, 2013 We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various more...
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| Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries Author/Editor: Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, Shu-Chun S Yang, Luis-Felipe Zanna. Release Date:November, 2012 Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints and tax revenue mobilization problems. This paper more...
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| Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces : Putting together the Pieces Release Date:June, 2012 We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt more...
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| Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis: The Case of Zambia Author/Editor: Alfredo Baldini, Jaromir Benes, Andrew Berg, Mai Dao, Rafael Portillo. Release Date:April, 2012 We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three more...
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| The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios Author/Editor: Rafael Portillo, Andrew Berg, Jan Gottschalk, Luis-Felipe Zanna. Release Date:July, 2010 We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of more...
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| On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework : An Application to Low-Income Countries Author/Editor: Andrew Berg, Filiz Unsal, Rafael Portillo. Release Date:June, 2010 Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with more...
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