 | Reported Social Unrest Index: March 2022 Update Author/Editor: Philip Barrett. Release Date:May, 2022 This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. It shows that unrest more...
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| Shocks to Inflation Expectations Author/Editor: Philip Barrett, Jonathan J Adams. Release Date:April, 2022 The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to more...
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| Modeling the U.S. Climate Agenda: Macro-Climate Trade-offs and Considerations Author/Editor: Philip Barrett, Katharina Bergant, Jean Chateau, Rui Mano. Release Date:December, 2021 The run up to the 26th Climate Change Conference has brought tackling climate change to the fore of global policy making. In this context, the U.S. administration has recently unveiled new climate more...
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| Can International Technological Diffusion Substitute for Coordinated Global Policies to Mitigate Climate Change? Author/Editor: Philip Barrett. Release Date:June, 2021 In short, yes. I use a multi-region integrated assessment model with fuel-specific endogenous technical change to examine the impact of Europe and China reducing emissions to zero by mid-century. more...
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| Parameterizing Debt Maturity Author/Editor: Philip Barrett, Christopher Johns. Release Date:April, 2021
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| Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest Author/Editor: Philip Barrett, Mariia Bondar, Sophia Chen, Mali Chivakul, Deniz O Igan. Release Date:March, 2021 Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. An average social unrest episode in an typical country more...
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| Social Repercussions of Pandemics Author/Editor: Philip Barrett, Sophia Chen. Release Date:January, 2021 Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly more...
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| Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports Author/Editor: Philip Barrett, Maximiliano Appendino, Kate Nguyen, Jorge de Leon Miranda. Release Date:July, 2020 We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be more...
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| The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016 Author/Editor: Philip Barrett. Release Date:September, 2018 I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal more...
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| Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies Author/Editor: Philip Barrett. Release Date:April, 2018 Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic more...
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