 | A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area Author/Editor: Thomas McGregor, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:December, 2022 We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven sub-components of core inflation, and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. The more...
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 | Natural Gas in Europe: The Potential Impact of Disruptions to Supply Author/Editor: Gabriel Di Bella, Mark J Flanagan, Karim Foda, Svitlana Maslova, Alex Pienkowski, Martin Stuermer, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:July, 2022 This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe's balances and economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to more...
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 | Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil Author/Editor: Daniel Cunha, Joana Pereira, Roberto Accioly Perrelli, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:March, 2022 We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment more...
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 | Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America Author/Editor: Ravi Balakrishnan, Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz, Marika Santoro, Frederik G Toscani, Mauricio Vargas. Release Date:April, 2021 Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout more...
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 | The Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets, Poverty and Inequality in Brazil Author/Editor: Diala Al Masri, Valentina Flamini, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:March, 2021 We document the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian labor market focusing on employment, wages and hours worked using the nationally representative household surveys more...
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 | Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle Author/Editor: Frederic Lambert, Andrea Pescatori, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:November, 2020 Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle more...
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 | Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru Author/Editor: Christoph Freudenberg, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:July, 2019 Past reforms have put the Peruvian pension system on a largely fiscally sustainable path, but the system faces important challenges in providing adequate pension levels for a large share of the more...
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 | More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets Author/Editor: Antonio David, Frederic Lambert, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:March, 2019 We analyze the performance of labor markets in Latin America since the late 1990s. Strong GDP growth during the commodity boom period led to important gains in employment and a fall in the more...
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 | Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach Author/Editor: Sergi Lanau, Adrian Robles, Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:May, 2018 We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve more...
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 | The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries in Latin America and the Caribbean : A Closer Look at the Case of Bolivia Author/Editor: Frederik G Toscani. Release Date:February, 2017 This paper studies the impact of natural resource extraction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) from a number of angles. First, we exploit a novel dataset on the universe of giant oil and gas more...
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