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An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank

Author/Editor: Rania A Al-Mashat, Ales Bulir, N Nergiz Dinçer, Tibor Hlédik, Tomás Holub, Asya Kostanyan, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurbekyan, Rafael A Portillo, Hou Wang.

Release Date:September, 2018

This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Czech National Bank (CNB), one of the most more...



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Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author/Editor: Giovanni Melina, Rafael A Portillo.

Release Date:March, 2018

We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic more...



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Quarterly Projection Model for India : Key Elements and Properties

Author/Editor: Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Pranav Gupta, Joice John, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G V Nadhanael, Rafael Portillo, Hou Wang, Fan Zhang.

Release Date:February, 2017

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for more...



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Implications of Food Subsistence for Monetary Policy and Inflation

Author/Editor: Rafael Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Stephen A O'Connell, Richard Peck.

Release Date:March, 2016

We introduce subsistence requirements in food consumption into a simple new-Keynesian model with flexible food and sticky non-food prices. We study how the endogenous structural transformation that more...



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Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth

Author/Editor: Andrew Berg, Edward F. Buffie, Catherine A. Pattillo, Rafael Portillo, Andrea Presbitero, Luis-Felipe Zanna.

Release Date:December, 2015

We reconsider the macroeconomic implications of public investment efficiency, defined as
 the ratio between the actual increment to public capital and the amount spent. We show more...



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A Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Uruguay

Author/Editor: Rafael Portillo, Yulia Ustyugova.

Release Date:July, 2015

Uruguay has recently reverted to a money targeting (MT) framework in the context of adisinflation strategy. We develop a quantitative model for monetary policy analysisincorporating money targets in more...



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On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks: the Role of the Asset Market Structure

Author/Editor: Rafael Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna.

Release Date:February, 2015

We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international foodprice shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline more...



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Monetary Policy in Hybrid Regimes: The Case of Kazakhstan

Author/Editor: Natan P. Epstein, Rafael Portillo.

Release Date:June, 2014

This paper analyzes the monetary policy framework in Kazakhstan. The authorities have been successful in containing inflation in the context of a managed exchange rate regime. Over the past two more...



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Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

Author/Editor: Andrew Berg, Rafael A Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna.

Release Date:January, 2014

We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies inthe macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption more...



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Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: an Application to Kenya

Author/Editor: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Rafael A Portillo, Jan Vlcek, R Armando Morales.

Release Date:November, 2013

We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an more...



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