 | Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels Author/Editor: Anil Ari, Nicolas Arregui, Simon Black, Oya Celasun, Dora M Iakova, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian W H Parry, Iulia Teodoru, Karlygash Zhunussova. Release Date:July, 2022 We estimate that the recent surge in international fossil fuel prices will raise European households' cost of living in 2022 by close to 7 percent of consumption on average. Household burdens vary more...
| Price: $20.00
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| Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next? Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Niels-Jakob H Hansen, Aiko Mineshima, Mariano Spector, Jing Zhou. Release Date:February, 2022 Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, more...
| Price: $5.00
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| An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17 Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Jungjin Lee, Mico Mrkaic, Allan Timmermann. Release Date:August, 2021 This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is more...
| Price: $5.00
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| Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom Author/Editor: Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Zsoka Koczan. Release Date:February, 2016 Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has
 slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical
 more...
| Price: $18.00
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 | Fiscal Policy in Latin America : Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Francesco Grigoli, Keiko Honjo, Javier Kapsoli, Alexander Klemm, Bogdan Lissovolik, Jan Luksic, Marialuz Moreno Badia, Joana Pereira, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Baoping Shang, Yulia Ustyugova. Release Date:April, 2015 Latin America’s bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the more...
| Price: $10.00
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| The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance? Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, Chris Papageorgiou. Release Date:February, 2014 The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find more...
| Price: $18.00
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 | Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Roxana Mihet, Lev Ratnovski. Release Date:March, 2012 U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price more...
| Price: $18.00
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| The Us Federal Debt Outlook : Reading the Tea Leaves Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Geoffrey N Keim. Release Date:March, 2010 We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. more...
| Price: $18.00
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| How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets? Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Senay Agca. Release Date:December, 2009 Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, we find that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic more...
| Price: $18.00
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| On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions Author/Editor: Oya Celasun, Joong Kang. Release Date:July, 2006 This paper evaluates the bias of the least-squares-with-dummy-variables (LSDV) method in fiscal reaction function estimations. A growing number of studies estimate fiscal policy reaction more...
| Price: $15.00
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