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Natural Disaster Insurance for Sovereigns: Issues, Challenges and Optimality

Author/Editor: Aliona Cebotari, Karim Youssef.

Release Date:January, 2020

Natural disasters are a source of economic risks in many countries, especially in smaller and lower-income states, and ex-ante preparedness is needed to manage the risks. The paper discusses more...



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Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve

Author/Editor: Ales Bulir, Jan Vlcek.

Release Date:January, 2020

Does monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries – operating under various monetary regimes – we find that monetary policy decisions, as more...



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The (Subjective) Well-Being Cost of Fiscal Policy Shocks

Author/Editor: Kodjovi M Eklou, Mamour Fall.

Release Date:January, 2020

Do discretionary spending cuts and tax increases hurt social well-being? To answer this question, we combine subjective well-being data covering over half a million of individuals across 13 European more...



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How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries

Author/Editor: Chikako Baba, Salvatore Dell'Erba, Enrica Detragiache, Olamide Harrison, Aiko Mineshima, Anvar Musayev, Asghar Shahmoradi.

Release Date:January, 2020

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) – the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio more...



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How Do Member Countries Receive IMF Policy Advice: Results from a State-of-the-art Sentiment Index

Author/Editor: Ghada Fayad, Chengyu Huang, Yoko Shibuya, Peng Zhao.

Release Date:January, 2020

This paper applies state-of-the-art deep learning techniques to develop the first sentiment index measuring member countries’ reception of IMF policy advice at the time of Article IV Consultations. more...



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Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of its Parts? Strengthening Caribbean Regional Integration

Author/Editor: Abdullah Al-Hassan, Mary E Burfisher, Julian T Chow, Ding Ding, Fabio Di Vittorio, Dmitriy Kovtun, Arnold McIntyre, Inci Ötker, Marika Santoro, Lulu Shui, Karim Youssef.

Release Date:January, 2020

Deeper economic integration within the Caribbean has been a regional policy priority since the establishment of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the decision to create the Caribbean Single more...



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Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?

Author/Editor: David J Hofman, Marcos d Chamon, Pragyan Deb, Thomas Harjes, Umang Rawat, Itaru Yamamoto.

Release Date:January, 2020

We investigate the motives inflation-targeting central banks in emerging markets may have for intervening in foreign exchange markets and evaluate the case for such interventions based on the more...



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One Shock, Many Policy Responses

Author/Editor: Rui Mano, Silvia Sgherri.

Release Date:January, 2020

Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using more...



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Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Author/Editor: Andrea Deghi, Mitsuru Katagiri, Sohaib Shahid, Nico Valckx.

Release Date:January, 2020

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile more...



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Exploring the Output Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Low Income Countries

Author/Editor: Jiro Honda, Hiroaki Miyamoto, Mina Taniguchi.

Release Date:January, 2020

What do we know about the output effects of fiscal policy in low income countries (LICs)? There are very few empirical studies on the subject. This paper fills this gap by estimating the output more...



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