A Financial Conditions Index for Poland

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Author/Editor: Giang Ho, Yinqiu Lu
Release Date: © December, 2013
ISBN : 978-1-48431-406-7
Stock #: WPIET2013252

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This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index’s forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland’s economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.

More publications in this series: Working Papers

More publications by: Giang Ho ; Yinqiu Lu