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Canada's Potential Growth: Another Victim of the Crisis?
Author/Editor: Marcello M Estevão, Evridiki Tsounta
Release Date: © January, 2010
ISBN : 978-1-45196-204-8
Stock #: WPIEA2010013
Stock Status: On back-order
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This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in the short term. The estimated decline of about 1 percentage point originates from a sharply decelerating capital stock accumulation (as investment has dropped steeply) and a rising long-term unemployment rate (which would raise equilibrium unemployment rates). However, over the medium term, we expect Canada's potential GDP growth to gradually rise to around 2 percent, below the pre-crisis growth rate, mostly reflecting the effects of population aging and a secular decline in average working hours.
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